Thousand Dollar Thursday, A Grand New Deal Every Week

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Option Pricing and Covered Calls

I want to write in response to one of the blog-site followers, Erin Shabowitsky. She was concerned that there are not too many good covered calls right now. I say yes, especially if you want more than 2% a month cash returns.

Why? The reasons are varied, so let me try to put some perspective. Stocks climb a wall of worry. As the market has moved higher and higher, the premiums are depressed. The fluff is sucked out of the option price. Remember, "when a stock goes up implied volatility goes down (with call options).
Normally we would see an option on BAC at $8 in the .50 cents to .80 cents range. Not now. The $8 calls are about .15 cents and the April options are not much more, say .30 cents. Virtually all the stocks I check are this way.

"FEAR IS PURE AND POTENT, GREED IS ALWAYS TEMPERED WITH REALITY."
There is too much reality out there. It looks like the market wants to move higher, and in many ways (P/E ratios, EPS, even book value) that would be justified, but it also looks like it needs a short to mid-level correction. I bet on that. Reality will set in and it will back off some. At that time option prices will increase. Will they soar? I don't know, that depends on the amount of the downturn or correction.
Just keep your powder dry. Don't spend your capital, be patient.

1 comment:

  1. I every time spent my half an hour to read this blog’s posts daily along with a mug of coffee.
    Historical Options Prices

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