Thousand Dollar Thursday, A Grand New Deal Every Week

Friday, September 23, 2011

Market Thoughts

I would like to put in my thoughts on the market right here, right. It's September, historically a very bad month. It's the end of the red-light period (no-news) and has been left with non-earnings news, mostly from around the world. It's been pretty bleak. Then the Fed disappoints, and bam, it's down.
This period is about over. The market has pretty good support at 11,200. That's the DJIA. If it hits 10,800 again, which it might do, that is even more firm support. But companies are making huge amounts of money. Official earnings season begins about Oct. 10th. However we're wrapped up with a government which is doing more harm than good, and this puts a damper on everything.
If you have a chance to look at an IBD, Wall Steet Journal or Barron's, or even look it up online, look for a 30 day chart---one that incorporates August and September up to now. Look at the last few days of August. In technical analysis, or in any charting way of thinking, you look for a double bottom. Specifically a chart or bounce that looks good is called a "double bounce, with a raised right cheek." I'm not making this up. It's like a double dip but the second dip---if it does not go as low as the first dip---signals that the market, or a particular stock, will go up more. If you have a triple dip, with two lows that are higher than the first low, it's even better. The market moves up. I think we're about to have a quadruple dip, and the market will rebound nicely.
This means that the market the rest of this week bounces off 11,200. If not, all bets are off.
You can play the whole market---either an index trade on the Dow, DJX, or by buying calls or puts on the DIA, an ETF that owns all of the DJIA 30 stocks. These are called the Diamonds. They have $1 and $2 strike prices. For example, if the Dow is at 11,200, you could practice trade (first to learn how to do this) the DIA $112 or $114 calls. Play is for a double. An old rule of thumb was that if the Dow went up 100, that represented about 50 cents on the option. Check it out and see if it's still true.
Let me know how it goes.

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