Thousand Dollar Thursday, A Grand New Deal Every Week

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

2012 Part 2

Hi again. I know you've been anxiously waiting my comments on my prognostication for the rest of the year. So here we go. In short, it's stuck. After I wrote the first blog, saying the same thing and commented on the fact that to an extent the market will be political-news driven, I was reading an article/opinion in Investor's Business Daily. It stated: "Look for ups and downs in the polls to have just as much, if not more, influence on this year's market . . ." I couldn't have said it better. I'll repeat my own take on this. The market wants the current president to go back to Hawaii or Chicago or wherever. He has worn out his welcome.

The year 2011 came and left with a whimper. Our market ended about where it started. However, there were some serious gyrations during the year, especially last August. So we were flat. The rest of the world did not fair so well. Germany and France were down 20%. Brazil was down 26% (even after Miss Hillary said we should be more like Brazil). In Asia, Japan was down 16%, India down 40%, Hong Kong down 18%, Taiwan down 25% and the new gorilla in the China Shoppe was China, with it's small public companies down 36%. I say small because their biggest companies are not up to our standards.

So, even the liberal LA Times said it's been a "pretty good year."  Some would say we were in a bear market. If you define a bear market as a reduction in the market of 20% or more, than we were. But hold your horses. Nobody, especially in the Obama-Obsessed-Media will call it that. It all depends when your starting point and ending point is. It depends on your definition of "is." I guess I should join them and blame it on Pres. Bush, but this "recovery" started two full years into this presidency.

Lastly, I'm an eternal optimist. The American economy and Americans in general are too strong and too resilient to even let this Neo-Marxist administration keep us down for long. The IBD said, " . . . the fact that our country is being run by the most anti-business, anti-capitalist, anti-free-market, anti-entreprenuer and anti-Wall Street administration in U.S. history."

This year will plod along. There will be plenty of opportunities to buy good stocks. Plenty of chances to make extra income. And plenty of time to get your own business up and going.
May you prosper well.
Wade

Thursday, January 12, 2012

POTENTIAL CASH FLOW DEALS

Hi there my friends.
I haven't forgotten to write the next piece in the comment category about 2012. I'm working on it right now. Well not right right now, but when I finish this blog I'll wrap it up. In fact, I have more than one blog to write. It's not just about the market or the economy, but about how to use this information to make more money. I'll call it "2012 part 2, and then part 3.

POTENTIAL CASH FLOW DEALS.

The market is not heating up. In fact, it's having a devil of a time with 12,400 (The Dow). But there are always trades to be made and profits to be gathered in. Here are some covered call possibilities for Feb. One has a good Jan. premium, so let's get to it.

ROYL: The stock was at $4.65. the Feb. S45 calls were .35 cents to sell. 1,000 shares would be $4,650, so if you sold the $5 calls and actually got called out, you'd make another $350. But you'd take in $350 now for agreeing to sell the stock at $5. It's not 10% but it's not bad. Look at a chart on this company. It has signed a pretty big deal and it's future looks good at this time, albeit things can change.

ELN: I've traded this one off and on for years. The stock is at $13.65, or $13,650 to buy. If you used margin that would be about $6,825. The $13 calls are going for $1.20 to sell. If you did so and got called out, you would adjust your profits by $650 against your gain. Still, you would take in $1,200 dollars for selling 10 contracts at $1.20 each, or $1,200. That would be a net of $550. But take a look at the $14 calls. They going for l65 cents to sell, or $650 now. You get to keep this no matter what. If the stock goes above $14 and you get called out, you'd make another $350 ( $13,650 up to $14,000 = $350). So, take in $650 and potentially make another $350. Pretty good cash flow now, and good potential for more later.

BAC: Look at Bank of America (BAC). The stock is at $6.50. Look at the Jan $6 calls. Yes, these expire next week, Jan. 21st. They are going for .90 cents to sell. That's $900 for you right now. If you get called out you'd have to give back .50 cents, or $500. That's a cool $400 for a week and a few days.
Now, look at the February $6 calls. They're going for $1.00 to sell. That is $1,000 and the same scenario if you get call out. Here's a good look at a choice and the difference it would make. I say, take the money at hand. Sometimes the near-term option is not going for much, so go on out to the next month. However $900 is $900. If the stock goes down, you can buy-back the option for less, keep the stock and then sell the February's then.

There are similar profits to ELN in JDSU. Also look at MU, RMBS, FRO, and even JBLU.
Happy Investing and Trading. Let me know how it goes or if you have any questions.
Your humble autodidact,
Wade

A New Year

Hello my New Year's Friends.
This is going to be a great year---not because of a rampaging bull-market, but because we deal with the market at hand. We take what it gives us and we put market forces to work for us. I've written several thoughts, about the market, the political arena and the economy.

ITEM #1: I still do not think we'll have that rampaging bull market. Many have commented on the fact that it's an election year. This time, I don't agree. Usually the third year of a presidency is the best of the four years. That didn't pan out last year, with the markets closing up or down a fraction of the beginning. I think political news will give short-term direction to the movements in the market. Notice I didn't say that political news and opinions, would drive the market up a big way, or down by big moves. I think, for the most part, it is range bound. I think the Dow (The DJIA 30 stocks), to the extent that it represents the whole market, will trade between 11,600 and 12,800. And those two points are the extremes. If the market goes higher or lower, I think it will be only temporary---or better said, those moves will be outliers. Then it will settle back within those perimeters. In short, it's stuck. I've written before what it will take, and I'll mention it briefly here: We need a repeal of Sarbanes-Oxley---especially Reg. FD, or Regulation Fair Disclosure. What a destructive law. And it would be a great boon to get rid of the new law passed last summer: Dodd-Frank. We have not yet seen the destruction that this law will cause. It's horrible.

I won't wax too political here, but a simple observation. Many people think that the current administration is dangerous for America. I do too. I project that every time news comes out that the Republicans will win the presidency (and to a lesser extent the Senate) the market will go up, almost despite the quarterly news cycle or news out of Europe. Conversely, every time news or polls come out that point to four more years of the current socialist agenda, the market will go down.
I hear and read this sentiment everywhere. It will get more pronounced as we get near election day.

ITEM #2: I was reading an article in Barron's that said, in regards to the market this year, 2012. He said overall that " . . . state of the market, Corporate America, the economy and the world." I think this mirrors my own feelings, in that there is more to a stock price movement, or a whole market movement than just earnings, though I think earnings are vastly important. Read two paragraphs below.
Recently I wrote a blog entitled "Picturesque." I stated that we look at a stock or a company and have to consider the arena of its existence, the whole market, the economy and the whole world, especially the current state of Europe (Which I hope is not our destiny). I will now add one more consideration to the list: It is the product or service of the company. Look at LuluLemon Athletica (LULU). I think the Barron's quotation is right on, but some of the points seem confusing, in that they are redundant. Again, you will not make decisions in a vacuum. You will not invest in a stock that is unaffected by Presidential decisions or liberal policies.

All of these aspects effect earnings and earnings growth. Remember, a stock price today is based on one thing: "A STOCK PRICE TODAY IS BASED ON THE ANTICIPATION OF FUTURE EARNINGS." Do you see how interest rates, a debt crisis, a lawsuit, a new competitor, or a host of other things effect the price of a stock?

I hope to be of service this coming year. I will study and contemplate things and try to help you connect the dots better.
Wade

Monday, January 2, 2012

EL Stock Split

Estee Lauder is doing a 2:1 stock split on Jan 12th. Look at the chart below. It's a perfect stock split chart. See how it ran up on the announcement. Then it formed a bit of a rolling pattern, with an upward bias. It looks good around $108 to $110 to buy a call.

That would be the trade to catch the rolls, and then try to position in, like MOlly did with Ross Stores, on the rally into the split. I just read an article about EL and it's doing very well.

WRITING COVERED CALLS

We've had a few disappointments with some of the stocks chosen to use for covered call writing. We can always improve in the choice department. If we look at just the numbers we often get a lopsided picture. We also must remember to put in our stop losses to protect the downside.

These stocks and their options are not that large in terms of rate of return. In fact they're weak. Why? Part of this is that the market is range-bound. Look at a chart of the Dow. Look below at the DIA, an ETF stock of the Dow 30. It looks like the current range for support to resistance is about 350 to 400 points---say, 11,800 on the support side and 12,200 or so on the resistance end. Will it go higher? Who knows. We're heading into January, but the market is climbing a wall of worry.

Chart forSPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA)

So, don't look for great options. The implied volatility in the option prices is lower right now.
LOOK AT THESE DEALS:

CLWR: the stock is at $1.90; a thousand shares is $1,900. the February $2 calls are.20 cents, or $200. But see commissions wipes out a lot of this.

FRO looks good. This is a large container shipping company, Frontline. The stock was $4.10. The Jan $4 calls were .40 X .45 cents. So .40 cents to sell, or $400. The Feb. $4 calls were .65 cents to sell. Seven weeks for $650 now, and maybe a give back of $100 as the stock is .10 cents in the money, or $100.

ROYL was $4.60 and the Feb $5 calls were .30 X .55 cents. There is such a large spread you can probably get .40 cents.

YHOO at $16.08 has Jan $16 calls at .77 to sell and Feb $16 calls at $1.19.
Even Sprint (S) is at $2.28 with Feb $2 calls at .42 cents.
Look at MBI. This used to be one of my favorites. Stock at $11.60 and the Feb $11 calls were going for $1.60 and the Feb $12s were going for $1.12 to sell.

This last one looks good. check it out. I also like FRO. Big decisions ahead for you and your broker.
More later.
Wade

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

SANTA CLAUS RALLY

Let's put this information under the topic of making more money. Well, that's a big surprise, I can hear you commenting. Like all the other messages and blogs are about something different. This is a good time of the year, historically and histrionically. It proves out most every year---except 1997, drats.
There is a tendency for the stock market, and several stocks within the market to a higher degree, to move up at the end of the year. How to play this movement? We'll get to that in a moment. First though, just what is a Santa Claus Rally? Well, you think long and hard and realize it must have something to do with Christmas. And for the most part you would be right on. There is no technical definition of this phenomenon, but there are several ideas that bring it to life. Some say it is the last five trading days of the current year and the first two trading days of the new year. That's close enough.
I think it's a bit longer. My Santa Claus is a little chubbier. It starts earlier, say after the December expiration date, or third Friday, and goes deeper into January. If fact it runs into the January Effect.
If you get into a position on Dec. 23rd instead of Dec. 27th, it's usually no big deal. It is a bullish trade, either in stocks or in options. To add to this you can trade positions that have a higher likelihood of moving in this time period. Stocks like the retail stores, online selling services, gift companies. I'll add to this stocks getting ready to participate in the January Effect.
See the next blog called the January Effect. That will add gravitas to this blog.
Here are some potential things you can do:
1)  Check the news. How is shopping going? What was Black Friday like (this year it was awesome); Local Saturday (it was also really good; and Cyber Monday---another homerun.
2)  How about sales the rest of December? Great so far.
3)  What is the market like? It's range bound. Can it be played? It can and it is. Play the DIA options as they near support and resistance levels.
NOTE: Many options now trade weekly. The DIA (ETFs) have an expiration date for Dec. 29th, as well as the regular option expiration date in January. Some have already traded it once.
4)  Do short term in-and-out plays, ROSS Stores (ROST) has been good. There is a lot of life left in this stock.
5)  Look for stocks with large swings between support and resistance. Check out LULU, NGLS and now ROST. Choose carefully. Probably slightly in-the-money options are the way to go. Don't get greedy. A quick .50 cents on ten contracts is $500.
6)  Consider all the news. I think the blog I wrote called Picturesque is one of the most important articles I've ever written.
Look at the whole picture. Give your stock a chance to work.
7)  There are so many great covered calls stocks right now. I'll be putting on a January list by Monday.
8)  Survey after survey, analysis after analysis, point to the fact that there are bargains everywhere. Stocks are trading at incredible P/E ratios. Also, many stocks are trading at great book values. For example: MSFT could be at $75 and it would seem normal./ Berkshire-Hathaway ($117,600 per share---and a good bell weather stock for all of America) could be at $250,000 per share and it would be still at a good P/E ratio. There are hundreds of others.
NOTE: Again, read the upcoming blog on the January Effect.
One last thing about the Santa Claus Rally. It's usually followed by a very good January, some think it's the best month of the year. I agree, pending other global news.
That's it for now. Let's all get ready for a great and prosperous New Year.
Wade

THE JANUARY EFFECT

I have a particular affectation for the January Effect. It is a good time to be alive. Let me share a few ideas of why human spirits soar and this phenomenon is often followed by a soaring of economic activity, including but not limited to the Stock Market. Here goes:

1)  The old year is gone. If you had a bad year, you look forward to a better year. If you had a good year, for optimists it can only get better. Many people right now are looking forward to the new year. Hope and Change spring eternal.

2)  Many big funds and pensions start to rebalance their portfolios at the end of the year. They go to cash (which started just before Oct. 31st) and start purchasing better stocks.

3)  Here's a comical irony. The big guys want to get in the market in advance of the little guys---you and me. Don't we usually think it is the other way around? We, the little guys, are trying to figure out where the big money is going. Point: at the end of December and in January there is a lot of positioning and re-balancing.

4)  There is a flood of new money, well . . . flooding the market in January. Some of this is from the aforementioned move from cash to equity positions. Most is from an event which happens every year. It is the new cash that goes into IRAs, 401Ks, pension plans, etc. Think of this. Most corporate plans max out in the previous summer. Now, people have new freed-up donations to their plans and they want to put it to work as soon as they can. This is huge. Consider your own situation. Do you wait for April 14th of 2013 to make your 2012 contribution to your IRA or do you make it on January 2nd of 2012? Get it in early. Why not pick up another year of tax-free growth?

5)  January is the month of the ultimate "Earnings Season." It's the year end. If the year has been profitable and the companies are doing well, it should be good. Well, my opinion is that companies have become lean and mean. They have billions of dollars, and in spite of our current government's bias against profits, growth and businsss, many businesses and investments have excelled anyway. One man cannot hold back our free-enterprise system for long.

"IF THERE'S A WAY, TAKE IT; IF NOT, MAKE IT."

6)  This year is also different. Companies have investment capital for acquisitions, expansion and organic growth. And their multiples are incredible. Some say, and I agree, this is one of the best times for picking up great companies' stocks that we've seen in over 80 years.

7)  And the best January Effect of all is me. I'm here, ready to analyze, figure-out and plan a great month. I hope to hear from you as you "GROW OUT OF YOUR PROBLEMS!"
H A P P Y    N E W    Y E A R